Maritimo 1-2 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.72
Draw
36%
3.54
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.81
6+ Goals
8%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
55%
-12.5pp
35%
Draw
26%
+9.9pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 22%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.89/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.90
-25% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +38%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.7 Crosses 12.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Alverca
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
23.01.2004 Maritimo Maritimo 1-1 HT 0-1 Alverca Alverca POR
22.08.2003 Alverca Alverca 0-1 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
09.02.2002 Alverca Alverca 0-2 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
16.09.2001 Maritimo Maritimo 5-0 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR
22.01.2001 Maritimo Maritimo 2-1 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR
20.08.2000 Alverca Alverca 0-0 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
1-2
AWAY Alverca
0.81 xG 1.68
73% Ball Possession 27%
17 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
474 Passes 121
88% Pass Accuracy 69%
59 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca squeezed past Maritimo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Maritimo at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maritimo had 73% of the ball to Alverca's 27%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 0.81 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Maritimo and 0.33 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Alverca?

Maritimo 1-2 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 42%, draw 35%, Alverca 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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