Porto II vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Porto II v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Porto II vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 1-0
Porto II
POR2
1-2
HT 0-2
Porto II
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-2
HT 0-0
Porto II
POR2
Porto II 3-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Porto II nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Porto II found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Porto II had 52% of the ball to Penafiel's 48%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.66 to 1.73.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Porto II and 1.17 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Porto II vs Penafiel?
Porto II 3-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Porto II vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Porto II 37%, draw 27%, Penafiel 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.