UD Oliveirense 3-2 Benfica II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
45%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 26% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
25%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
33%
-5.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
45%
Away Win
40%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica II EU Bookmakers 45%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.39/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.58
+18% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.9 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Benfica II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.32 xG 1.63
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
274 Passes 338
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Benfica II Benfica II 2-2 HT 2-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
07.04.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 3-1 HT 2-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
25.11.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 1-1 HT 0-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
19.03.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 2-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
08.10.2022 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-2 HT 0-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
02.05.2021 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
3-2
AWAY Benfica II
2.14 xG 3.19
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
176 Passes 265
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Benfica II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense edged past Benfica II 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica II at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 48% of the ball to Benfica II's 52%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 2.14 to 3.19 — the balance of chances actually favoured Benfica II.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.67 for Benfica II.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Benfica II?

UD Oliveirense 3-2 Benfica II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Benfica II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 28%, draw 27%, Benfica II 45%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica II) ✗ Under 2.5
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