Birmingham 2-2 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
39%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.45
6+ Goals
12%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 25% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.12
1/2
9%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
13%
4.9
X/2
12%
6.21
X/X
9%
4.71
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
18%
4.36
2/X
9%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+7.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.27/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.37
-11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
384 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.5 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Swansea City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.13 xG 1.05
36% Ball Possession 64%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
172 Passes 439
65% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
04.02.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 3-4 HT 2-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
08.11.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 2-2 HT 1-2 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
19.03.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 0-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
23.10.2021 Birmingham Birmingham 2-1 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
02.04.2021 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
2-2
AWAY Swansea City
1.57 xG 0.74
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
297 Passes 336
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham and Swansea City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Birmingham had 47% of the ball to Swansea City's 53%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 1.57 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Birmingham and 1.17 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Swansea City?

Birmingham 2-2 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 37%, draw 24%, Swansea City 39%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Swansea City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swansea City) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
13 Jan 2024
15:30 Coventry vs Leicester City Analysis →
18:00 Southampton vs Sheffield Wednesday Analysis →
18:00 West Bromwich vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →
18:00 Huddersfield Town vs Plymouth Argyle Analysis →
18:00 Preston North End vs Bristol City Analysis →
18:00 Rotherham United vs Stoke City Analysis →