Millwall 1-3 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 28% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.4
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
10%
6.15
X/2
10%
4.94
X/X
10%
4.4
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
21%
3.23
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +14%
1.19/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.09
+6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
20.3 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Middlesbrough
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.67 xG 0.64
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
217 Passes 345
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
14.01.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
08.10.2022 Millwall Millwall 2-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
12.03.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
20.11.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
20.03.2021 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-3
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.16 xG 2.31
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
516 Passes 342
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough got the better of Millwall 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Middlesbrough made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Millwall had 59% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 41%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.16 to 2.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Millwall and 0.33 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Middlesbrough?

Millwall 1-3 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Millwall 37%, draw 26%, Middlesbrough 37%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ BTTS No
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