Torre Neapolis 0-4 Crotone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
49%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.83
6+ Goals
8%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
26%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
50%
Away Win
47%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torre Neapolis EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Crotone EU Bookmakers 51%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +15%
1.27/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/1.12
+23% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Torre Neapolis
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Crotone
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.09.2023 Crotone Crotone 2-3 HT 0-2 Torre Neapolis Torre Neapolis İTC
25.02.2023 Crotone Crotone 0-0 HT 0-0 Torre Neapolis Torre Neapolis İTC
23.10.2022 Torre Neapolis Torre Neapolis 2-4 HT 1-2 Crotone Crotone İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torre Neapolis
0-4
AWAY Crotone
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Torre Neapolis vs Crotone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crotone swept aside Torre Neapolis 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Crotone as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Torre Neapolis had 57% of the ball to Crotone's 43%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Torre Neapolis and 2.00 for Crotone.

What was the final score of Torre Neapolis vs Crotone?

Torre Neapolis 0-4 Crotone in the Italy - Serie C on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torre Neapolis vs Crotone?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Torre Neapolis 27%, draw 24%, Crotone 50%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crotone), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crotone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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