Ballymena United 2-4 Dungannon Swifts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
43%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.79
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 28% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.1
1/2
8%
24.7
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
12%
6.16
X/2
15%
5.1
X/X
15%
5.0
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
19%
3.15
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.9pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Dungannon Swifts EU Bookmakers 45%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
0.89/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.22
-35% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ballymena United
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Dungannon Swifts
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 1-1 HT 1-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
30.09.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-1 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
15.04.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 2-0 HT 0-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
14.01.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 2-0 HT 0-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
21.10.2022 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 1-1 HT 1-1 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
20.08.2022 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-2 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ballymena United
2-4
AWAY Dungannon Swifts
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ballymena United vs Dungannon Swifts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dungannon Swifts saw off Ballymena United 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dungannon Swifts as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ballymena United had 43% of the ball to Dungannon Swifts's 57%, shots finished 11-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ballymena United had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ballymena United and 0.33 for Dungannon Swifts.

What was the final score of Ballymena United vs Dungannon Swifts?

Ballymena United 2-4 Dungannon Swifts in the North Ireland - Premier League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ballymena United vs Dungannon Swifts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dungannon Swifts win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ballymena United 30%, draw 27%, Dungannon Swifts 43%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dungannon Swifts), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dungannon Swifts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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