13/01/2024
·
21:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
3-1
Hamrun Spartans vs Lija Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
28%
Over 2.5
72%
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
38%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
3%
X/X
7%
2/1
14%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
80%
14%
Draw
13%
14%
Away Win
7%
58%
BTTS Yes
49%
42%
BTTS No
51%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Hamrun Spartans v Lija — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Hamrun Spartans
EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY
Lija
EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% /
+3%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-11%
/
-35%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
64%
Ball Possession
36%
19
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
3
510 · 85%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
238 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Hamrun Spartans vs Lija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Hamrun Spartans swept aside Lija 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hamrun Spartans as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (72%) landed while both teams to score (58%) missed.
What was the final score of Hamrun Spartans vs Lija?
Hamrun Spartans 3-0 Lija in the Malta - FA Cup on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Hamrun Spartans vs Lija?
Before kick-off our model rated a Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Hamrun Spartans 72%, draw 14%, Lija 14%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamrun Spartans), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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13 Jan 2024