MKE Ankaragücü 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 13 Feb 2025

📅13/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.13
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
12%
5.03
X/2
11%
6.54
X/X
8%
4.52
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
16%
4.7
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +15%
1.43/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.28
+49% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +40%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.4 Crosses 14.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.44
49% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
363 Passes 374
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.09.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 HT 2-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü T1L
24.01.2024 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
27.08.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 HT 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
04.02.2023 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 0-2 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
27.08.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 2-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
07.03.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
0-1
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
0.18 xG 2.03
51% Ball Possession 49%
3 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
309 Passes 314
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MKE Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük nicked a narrow win over MKE Ankaragücü 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was MKE Ankaragücü at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, MKE Ankaragücü had 51% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 49%, shots finished 3-10, expected goals 0.18 to 2.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fatih Karagümrük's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for MKE Ankaragücü and 1.67 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of MKE Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?

MKE Ankaragücü 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - 1st Division on 13/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MKE Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a MKE Ankaragücü win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split MKE Ankaragücü 44%, draw 24%, Fatih Karagümrük 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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