Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 MKE Ankaragücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.32
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 27% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.11
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
13%
5.96
X/2
17%
5.22
X/X
10%
4.54
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
15%
3.4
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 43%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.39
-23% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +46%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
19.7 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2W-2D-2L
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 1.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
395 Passes 354
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.01.2024 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
27.08.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 HT 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
04.02.2023 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 0-2 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
27.08.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 2-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
07.03.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
08.11.2020 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-2 HT 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
3-2
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
1.24 xG 1.32
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
265 Passes 303
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs MKE Ankaragücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük squeezed past MKE Ankaragücü 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Fatih Karagümrük made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 46% of the ball to MKE Ankaragücü's 54%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.24 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.17 for MKE Ankaragücü.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 MKE Ankaragücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Before kick-off our model rated an MKE Ankaragücü win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 35%, draw 26%, MKE Ankaragücü 39%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
15 Sep 2024
16:00 Iğdır FK vs Esenler Erokspor Analysis →
19:00 Kocaelispor vs Manisa FK Analysis →
19:00 Gençlerbirliği vs Erzurumspor FK Analysis →