Gençlerbirliği 1-0 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.48
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.8
6+ Goals
9%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2
10%
6.43
X/X
15%
3.92
2/1
12%
30.5
2/2
10%
5.2
2/X
9%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.49/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.11
-6% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
285 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.0 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gençlerbirliği
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
269 Passes 292
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
03.12.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-1 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
07.05.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
11.12.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-2 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
08.05.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 1-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
14.12.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 2-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gençlerbirliği
1-0
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
0.95 xG 0.42
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
212 Passes 355
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 20
5 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gençlerbirliği vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gençlerbirliği squeezed past Erzurumspor FK 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gençlerbirliği as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gençlerbirliği had 39% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 61%, shots finished 7-6, expected goals 0.95 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gençlerbirliği and 1.00 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of Gençlerbirliği vs Erzurumspor FK?

Gençlerbirliği 1-0 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gençlerbirliği vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gençlerbirliği win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gençlerbirliği 43%, draw 30%, Erzurumspor FK 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gençlerbirliği), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gençlerbirliği) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
15 Sep 2024
16:00 Fatih Karagümrük vs MKE Ankaragücü Analysis →
16:00 Iğdır FK vs Esenler Erokspor Analysis →
19:00 Kocaelispor vs Manisa FK Analysis →