Iğdır FK 1-2 Esenler Erokspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.76
6+ Goals
12%
16.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.08
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.15
X/1
16%
3.7
X/2
5%
10.4
X/X
13%
5.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.45
2/2
12%
8.62
2/X
4%
17.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Iğdır FK EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.74/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.15
+77% / +82% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
406 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
14.0 Crosses 13.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Iğdır FK
1-2
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
0.82 xG 0.66
69% Ball Possession 31%
13 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
523 Passes 196
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Iğdır FK vs Esenler Erokspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esenler Erokspor nicked a narrow win over Iğdır FK 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Iğdır FK at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Iğdır FK had 69% of the ball to Esenler Erokspor's 31%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 0.82 to 0.66.

What was the final score of Iğdır FK vs Esenler Erokspor?

Iğdır FK 1-2 Esenler Erokspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Iğdır FK vs Esenler Erokspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Iğdır FK win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Iğdır FK 54%, draw 25%, Esenler Erokspor 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Iğdır FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Iğdır FK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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