Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

Bournemouth
2-2 HT 2-1
Manchester United
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Bournemouth vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
29%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.69
2-3 Goals
38%
2.03
4-5 Goals
28%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.19
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.71
X/2
6%
6.21
X/X
14%
5.96
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
17%
3.58
2/X
5%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
40%
+6.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
36%
-6.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-13.5pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bournemouth v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 39%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.45/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.75
+13% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
18.6 Crosses 15.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Bournemouth vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Manchester United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.22 xG 1.84
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
279 Passes 532
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 0-3 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
20.05.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
03.01.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
04.07.2020 Manchester United Manchester United 5-2 HT 3-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
02.11.2019 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-0 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
30.12.2018 Manchester United Manchester United 4-1 HT 3-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP

Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
2-2
AWAY Manchester United
1.64 xG 1.26
43% Ball Possession 57%
20 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
287 Passes 432
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 33
25 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth and Manchester United couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bournemouth at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bournemouth had 43% of the ball to Manchester United's 57%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.64 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bournemouth and 2.17 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Manchester United?

Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 47%, draw 24%, Manchester United 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bournemouth) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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