Manchester City 5-1 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.16
Draw
16%
7.78
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
3.94
Over 2.5
68%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
10.35
2-3 Goals
38%
2.58
4-5 Goals
28%
2.32
6+ Goals
18%
3.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.17
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
15%
3.7
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
6%
16.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.45
2/2
6%
31.5
2/X
5%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 12% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
82%
-15.6pp
16%
Draw
10%
+5.9pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+9.6pp
32%
Under 2.5
22%
+10.5pp
68%
Over 2.5
78%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.9pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.32/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.43
+31% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -9%
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
495 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 75%
43.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
22.6 Crosses 15.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Luton Town
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.69 xG 1.48
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
484 Passes 268
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2024 Luton Town Luton Town 2-6 HT 1-3 Manchester City Manchester City FAK
10.12.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 1-2 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
5-1
AWAY Luton Town
4.32 xG 0.51
74% Ball Possession 26%
37 Total Shots 4
13 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 1
704 Passes 214
92% Pass Accuracy 78%
105 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City ran out comfortable winners over Luton Town 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (68%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Manchester City had 74% of the ball to Luton Town's 26%, shots finished 37-4, expected goals 4.32 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Manchester City and 1.50 for Luton Town.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Luton Town?

Manchester City 5-1 Luton Town in the England - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 67%, draw 16%, Luton Town 17%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
13 Apr 2024
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