Atletico Madrid 3-1 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 13 Apr 2024

Atletico Madrid
3-1 HT 2-1
Girona
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 26% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
15%
4.49
X/2
7%
8.07
X/X
11%
5.36
2/1
10%
22.3
2/2
13%
5.57
2/X
8%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 29%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.54/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.57
+15% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
15.2 Crosses 17.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Girona
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.02 xG 1.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
438 Passes 441
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.01.2024 Girona Girona 4-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
13.03.2023 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
08.10.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
02.04.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
16.01.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-3 HT 1-1 Girona Girona İSPK
09.01.2019 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK

Atletico Madrid 3-1 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
3-1
AWAY Girona
2.40 xG 2.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 0
363 Passes 567
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
31 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid saw off Girona 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 41% of the ball to Girona's 59%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.40 to 2.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.50 for Girona.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Girona?

Atletico Madrid 3-1 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 47%, draw 26%, Girona 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ BTTS Yes
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