Grasshoppers 0-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.75
No
42%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.72
6+ Goals
12%
15.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 25% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.16
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
11%
6.95
X/2
14%
4.57
X/X
8%
4.5
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.86
2/X EV+ ✗
15%
13.3
Value flag · 2/X at 13.3 — our 15% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-5.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.0pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grasshoppers EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 49%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.16/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.95
+25% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +30%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.3 Crosses 19.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grasshoppers
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lugano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.62 xG 1.16
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
245 Passes 458
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.01.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-0 HT 0-0 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers İSV
22.10.2023 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 2-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.04.2023 Lugano Lugano 5-1 HT 1-1 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers İSV
02.04.2023 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 2-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.01.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-1 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers İSV
24.07.2022 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 2-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grasshoppers
0-1
AWAY Lugano
0.34 xG 1.63
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
250 Passes 513
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Grasshoppers vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano squeezed past Grasshoppers 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grasshoppers had 37% of the ball to Lugano's 63%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.34 to 1.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lugano's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grasshoppers had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Grasshoppers and 1.50 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Grasshoppers vs Lugano?

Grasshoppers 0-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grasshoppers vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Grasshoppers 31%, draw 29%, Lugano 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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