FC Akhmat Grozny 1-7 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.62
Over 2.5
33%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
1.95
No
64%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.56
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
14%
4.6
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 42% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.53
X/2
10%
6.59
X/X
17%
3.94
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
12%
5.25
2/X
6%
14.25
Value flag · X/1 at 4.53 — our 23% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.3pp
67%
Under 2.5
58%
+9.3pp
33%
Over 2.5
42%
-9.2pp
36%
BTTS Yes
47%
-11.0pp
64%
BTTS No
53%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.49/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/0.87
-12% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 70%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
18.8 Crosses 19.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.03 xG 0.35
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
373 Passes 184
75% Pass Accuracy 62%
32 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.10.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 4-1 HT 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
23.09.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
10.08.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-2 HT 0-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-7
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.30 xG 2.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 5
352 Passes 297
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baltika Kaliningrad swept aside FC Akhmat Grozny 7-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-5. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was FC Akhmat Grozny at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 54% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 46%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.30 to 2.69.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Baltika Kaliningrad led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 2.33 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-7 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 42%, draw 30%, Baltika Kaliningrad 28%. The final score 1-7 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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