Krasnodar 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

Krasnodar
1-2 HT 1-0
Zenit St. Petersburg
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
18.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.56
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
10%
6.17
X/2
13%
4.85
X/X
10%
4.27
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.26
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.0pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Krasnodar v Zenit St. Petersburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 45%
+16% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.21/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.00
+23% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 79%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
12.5 Crosses 15.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.07 xG 1.61
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
330 Passes 451
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
13.05.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
30.10.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-1 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
25.04.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-3 HT 0-2 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
07.08.2021 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-2 HT 3-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.04.2021 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-2 HT 1-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS

Krasnodar 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
1-2
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
0.61 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
313 Passes 378
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg squeezed past Krasnodar 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Krasnodar had 46% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 54%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.61 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Krasnodar and 2.00 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Krasnodar 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 32%, draw 26%, Zenit St. Petersburg 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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