Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

Lokomotiv Moscow
3-3 HT 1-0
CSKA Moskova
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.9
Over 2.5
39%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.68
No
58%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 34% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.3
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
18%
5.08
X/2
14%
6.01
X/X
16%
4.67
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
9%
4.17
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
49%
+11.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
51%
-11.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.4pp
58%
BTTS No
44%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiv Moscow v CSKA Moskova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 37%
+12% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -8%
1.58/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.45
+9% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 74%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
15.5 Crosses 16.7
3.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.09 xG 1.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
338 Passes 315
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.08.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 4-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
23.04.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
29.10.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
12.03.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 HT 1-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
31.07.2021 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
21.04.2021 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 HT 1-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 CSKA Moskova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3-3
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.03 xG 1.60
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 9
351 Passes 267
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow and CSKA Moskova shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Moscow at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 55% of the ball to CSKA Moskova's 45%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.03 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.50 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova?

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 42%, draw 28%, CSKA Moskova 30%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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