Racing Santander 1-1 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
2.29
Over
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.69
2-3
40%
1.93
4-5
23%
2.77
6+
11%
7.43
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.69 — our 26% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.09
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
5%
12.25
X/1
14%
5.59
X/2
7%
6.86
X/X
15%
5.57
2/1
9%
22.9
2/2
14%
4.24
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
32%
-5.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.9pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Santander EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.74/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.84
+27% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -22%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
240 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 79%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
15.3 Crosses 15.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Santander
1W-0D-0L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.96 xG 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
203 Passes 307
62% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 21
7 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.09.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-0 Racing Santander Racing Santander İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Santander
1-1
AWAY CD Castellon
2.03 xG 1.68
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 9
267 Passes 328
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Racing Santander vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Santander and CD Castellon shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Racing Santander at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Racing Santander had 46% of the ball to CD Castellon's 54%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 2.03 to 1.68.

What was the final score of Racing Santander vs CD Castellon?

Racing Santander 1-1 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Santander vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Santander win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Racing Santander 46%, draw 27%, CD Castellon 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Racing Santander) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Racing Santander) ✓ Under 2.5
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