Almeria 2-1 Cartagena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
67%
1.18
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.33
Over
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.66
2-3
42%
1.93
4-5
24%
2.78
6+
11%
7.49
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.66 — our 23% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.34
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
28.5
X/1
26%
3.7
X/2
7%
29.0
X/X
9%
9.11
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
5%
27.5
2/X
4%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Almeria win — 67%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
80%
-12.3pp
18%
Draw
14%
+3.7pp
15%
Away Win
6%
+8.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.7pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Cartagena EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
2.46/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.87
+0% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -22%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
448 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
22.5 Crosses 13.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cartagena
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.71 xG 1.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
334 Passes 262
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.11.2024 Cartagena Cartagena 1-2 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
04.08.2024 Cartagena Cartagena 1-1 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria HAZ
05.08.2022 Almeria Almeria 1-0 HT 1-0 Cartagena Cartagena HAZ
02.01.2022 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-1 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
16.08.2021 Cartagena Cartagena 1-3 HT 0-2 Almeria Almeria İS2
18.05.2021 Cartagena Cartagena 3-2 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-1
AWAY Cartagena
2.38 xG 1.28
59% Ball Possession 41%
28 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
425 Passes 269
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
51 Box Touches 13
32 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Cartagena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria edged past Cartagena 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almeria had 59% of the ball to Cartagena's 41%, shots finished 28-6, expected goals 2.38 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Almeria and 1.17 for Cartagena.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Cartagena?

Almeria 2-1 Cartagena in the Spain - 2nd Division on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Cartagena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Almeria 67%, draw 18%, Cartagena 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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