Cartagena 1-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 31% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.8pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cartagena EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 45%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.27/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/0.36
-8% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cartagena
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Almeria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.43 xG 1.57
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
271 Passes 324
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2022 Almeria Almeria 1-0 HT 1-0 Cartagena Cartagena HAZ
02.01.2022 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-1 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
16.08.2021 Cartagena Cartagena 1-3 HT 0-2 Almeria Almeria İS2
18.05.2021 Cartagena Cartagena 3-2 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
21.10.2020 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 0-1 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
21.04.2012 Cartagena Cartagena 1-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cartagena
1-1
AWAY Almeria
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cartagena vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cartagena and Almeria shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Cartagena had 45% of the ball to Almeria's 55%, shots finished 6-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cartagena and 1.33 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Cartagena vs Almeria?

Cartagena 1-1 Almeria in the Friendlies on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cartagena vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cartagena 35%, draw 28%, Almeria 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Almeria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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