Chelsea 2-4 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.63
Over 2.5
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.39
No
40%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.08
2-3 Goals
43%
2.08
4-5 Goals
28%
2.56
6+ Goals
12%
5.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.54
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
10%
6.19
X/2
15%
5.63
X/X
12%
6.34
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
18%
3.11
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+0.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
68%
-7.7pp
40%
BTTS No
32%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.22/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.87
-16% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +57%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 83%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
12.6 Crosses 11.6
0.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Manchester City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 2.08
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
353 Passes 570
84% Pass Accuracy 91%
17 Box Touches 40
9 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea FAK
17.02.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 1-1 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
12.11.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 4-4 HT 2-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
21.05.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
08.01.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-0 HT 3-0 Chelsea Chelsea FAK
05.01.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
2-4
AWAY Manchester City
1.32 xG 1.75
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
448 Passes 346
89% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City saw off Chelsea 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 56% of the ball to Manchester City's 44%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.32 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chelsea and 2.00 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Manchester City?

Chelsea 2-4 Manchester City in the Friendlies on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 32%, draw 27%, Manchester City 41%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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