Navalcarnero 2-1 CD Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.71
Over
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
43%
4-5
21%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.7pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.46/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.16
+13% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
1W-1D-3L
AWAY CD Guadalajara
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara 2-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
14.04.2024 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 3-1 HT 3-1 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara İS4
03.12.2023 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara 3-2 HT 2-1 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
18.02.2023 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
02.10.2022 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 0-2 HT 0-0 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
2-1
AWAY CD Guadalajara
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs CD Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero edged past CD Guadalajara 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Navalcarnero found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 57% of the ball to CD Guadalajara's 43%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, CD Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Navalcarnero and 1.80 for CD Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs CD Guadalajara?

Navalcarnero 2-1 CD Guadalajara in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs CD Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 39%, draw 28%, CD Guadalajara 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Navalcarnero), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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