Navalcarnero 3-1 CD Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.5pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.9pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.4pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.02/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.32
-8% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
254 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
0W-1D-2L
AWAY CD Guadalajara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 4
03.12.2023 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara 3-2 HT 2-1 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
18.02.2023 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
02.10.2022 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 0-2 HT 0-0 CD Guadalajara CD Guadalajara İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
3-1
AWAY CD Guadalajara
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs CD Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero got the better of CD Guadalajara 3-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Navalcarnero as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 41% of the ball to CD Guadalajara's 59%, shots finished 16-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, CD Guadalajara led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Navalcarnero and 2.00 for CD Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs CD Guadalajara?

Navalcarnero 3-1 CD Guadalajara in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs CD Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 43%, draw 25%, CD Guadalajara 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Navalcarnero) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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