Mantova 2-2 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 13 Apr 2025

Mantova
2-2 HT 0-1
Spezia
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Mantova vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.46
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
44%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.94
1/2
6%
22.45
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
9%
8.13
X/2
17%
4.66
X/X
16%
5.31
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.53
2/X EV+ ✓
9%
13.4
Value flag · 2/X at 13.4 — our 9% vs market 4.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
26%
-1.0pp
31%
Draw
25%
+6.3pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-5.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mantova v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 54%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.84/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.37
-25% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +77%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.7
17.2 Crosses 22.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Mantova vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Spezia
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.26 xG 2.68
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 26
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
141 Passes 340
62% Pass Accuracy 85%
5 Box Touches 62
7 Crosses 43
5 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.12.2024 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-1 Mantova Mantova İTB
17.05.2008 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
22.12.2007 Mantova Mantova 3-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
13.03.2007 Mantova Mantova 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
14.10.2006 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB

Mantova 2-2 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
2-2
AWAY Spezia
1.88 xG 1.07
67% Ball Possession 33%
31 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
524 Passes 206
90% Pass Accuracy 73%
43 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova and Spezia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Spezia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mantova had 67% of the ball to Spezia's 33%, shots finished 31-8, expected goals 1.88 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mantova had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Mantova and 0.60 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Spezia?

Mantova 2-2 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mantova 25%, draw 31%, Spezia 44%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spezia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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