Paderborn 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 13 Apr 2025

Paderborn
1-2 HT 0-1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.61
No
40%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.5
2-3 Goals
36%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.83
6+ Goals
16%
7.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.1
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2
7%
10.2
X/X
14%
6.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
20.7
2/2
14%
7.49
2/X
5%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.7 — our 13% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-12.4pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.0pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.6pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Fortuna Düsseldorf — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.87/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.78
+17% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
19.8 Crosses 14.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1

Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.82 xG 1.42
52% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
396 Passes 362
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.11.2024 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
04.02.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 4-3 HT 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
19.08.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
03.02.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 4-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
22.07.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 HT 2-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
12.03.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2

Paderborn 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
1-2
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.52 xG 1.94
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
395 Passes 312
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 14
41 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Düsseldorf edged past Paderborn 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Paderborn at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Paderborn had 55% of the ball to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 45%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.52 to 1.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Paderborn and 1.50 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Paderborn 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 44%, draw 28%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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