Canberra United (K) 1-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 13 Apr 2025

Canberra United (K)
1-0 HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix (K)
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Canberra United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
41%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
25%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
42%
-13.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.8pp
41%
Away Win
32%
+8.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.3pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Canberra United (K) v Wellington Phoenix (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Canberra United (K) EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K) EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.19/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.07
+3% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
14.0 Crosses 16.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Canberra United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Canberra United (K)
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K)
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.43 xG 1.90
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
209 Passes 325
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) 0-1 HT 0-1 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) AVUSTW
24.03.2024 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW
28.01.2024 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) 2-0 HT 1-0 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) AVUSTW

Canberra United (K) 1-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Canberra United (K)
1-0
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K)
0.75 xG 1.61
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
174 Passes 366
60% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Canberra United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Canberra United (K) edged past Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Wellington Phoenix (K) at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Canberra United (K) had 38% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix (K)'s 62%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.75 to 1.61 — on chances, Wellington Phoenix (K) could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Canberra United (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Canberra United (K) and 0.67 for Wellington Phoenix (K).

What was the final score of Canberra United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?

Canberra United (K) 1-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) in the Australia - W-League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Canberra United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wellington Phoenix (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Canberra United (K) 29%, draw 30%, Wellington Phoenix (K) 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Wellington Phoenix (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix (K)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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AVUSTW More Australia - W-League
13 Apr 2025
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