Celaya 2-3 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒04:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.86
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
50%
+6.8pp
20%
Draw
26%
-5.7pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 28%
+11% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.92/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.14
+20% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
335 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
27.10.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-1 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
15.03.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
03.11.2023 Celaya Celaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
06.05.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
03.05.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-3 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
26.01.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg nicked a narrow win over Celaya 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Celaya at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Celaya and 0.17 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Celaya 2-3 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Celaya 57%, draw 20%, Leones Negros Udeg 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celaya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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