Motor Lublin 1-2 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.18
Over Pick
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
29%
4.19
2-3
37%
1.86
4-5
24%
2.85
6+
10%
8.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.68
1/2
5%
21.7
1/X
5%
13.8
X/1
11%
8.19
X/2
14%
4.84
X/X
9%
5.57
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
25%
2.52
2/X
9%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+6.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-4.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.7pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 53%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
2.26/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.27
+150% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
285 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 81%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
15.0 Crosses 19.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lech Poznan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.29 xG 1.96
27% Ball Possession 73%
10 Total Shots 25
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
183 Passes 616
71% Pass Accuracy 88%
8 Box Touches 47
11 Crosses 46
4 Yellow Cards 0
05.10.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 1-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-2
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.36 xG 1.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
363 Passes 413
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
34 Box Touches 22
30 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan squeezed past Motor Lublin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 48% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 52%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.36 to 1.67.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?

Motor Lublin 1-2 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 33%, draw 23%, Lech Poznan 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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