Piast Gliwice 2-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
40%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.67
Over
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.63
2-3
39%
1.73
4-5
24%
4.1
6+
9%
20.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.51
1/2
9%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
12%
6.12
X/2
16%
5.28
X/X
13%
4.12
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
15%
3.58
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
38%
+2.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Piast Gliwice EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 42%
+5% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.23/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.28
-18% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
18.9 Crosses 21.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Piast Gliwice
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.69 xG 1.04
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
270 Passes 502
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-0 HT 0-0 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POLK
06.10.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
26.06.2024 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin HAZ
20.04.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-2 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
20.10.2023 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
29.04.2023 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Piast Gliwice
2-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.04 xG 1.21
33% Ball Possession 67%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
176 Passes 448
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Piast Gliwice squeezed past Pogon Szczecin 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Piast Gliwice made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Piast Gliwice had 33% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 67%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.04 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.50 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?

Piast Gliwice 2-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Piast Gliwice 33%, draw 27%, Pogon Szczecin 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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