Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Legia Varşova v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals
Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Legia Varşova
POL
5-1
HT 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
POL
2-5
HT 1-3
Legia Varşova
POL
Legia Varşova 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics
Jagiellonia Bialystok squeezed past Legia Varşova 1-0 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Jagiellonia Bialystok made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Legia Varşova had 60% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 40%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.19 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured Legia Varşova.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.33 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.
What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Legia Varşova 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 40%, draw 30%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Legia Varşova), BTTS Yes went the other way.