Legia Varşova 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
2.1
Over
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.89
2-3
40%
1.82
4-5
23%
2.97
6+
11%
9.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.79
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
9%
12.65
X/1
18%
5.03
X/2
11%
7.44
X/X
11%
5.26
2/1
9%
22.9
2/2
13%
5.1
2/X
10%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +20%
1.42/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.34
-18% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
22.7 Crosses 15.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.25 xG 1.12
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
425 Passes 337
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.02.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK
06.10.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
07.04.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
01.10.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 2-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.05.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
29.10.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-5 HT 1-3 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
0-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.19 xG 0.66
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
410 Passes 255
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok squeezed past Legia Varşova 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Jagiellonia Bialystok made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 60% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 40%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.19 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured Legia Varşova.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.33 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Legia Varşova 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 40%, draw 30%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Legia Varşova), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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