Legia Varşova 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Cup, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.0
Over
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
39%
4-5
26%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-12.2pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.9pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 29%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.08/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.02
-46% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -22%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.09 xG 1.31
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
439 Passes 327
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
07.04.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
01.10.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 2-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.05.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
29.10.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-5 HT 1-3 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
13.05.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
3-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova beat Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Legia Varşova made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 42% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 58%, shots finished 16-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.50 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Legia Varşova 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Cup on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 37%, draw 30%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ BTTS Yes
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