Sporting Braga 4-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.86
Over
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.06
No
48%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.2
2-3
43%
1.79
4-5
23%
3.54
6+
10%
14.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.82
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
17.8
X/1
20%
3.82
X/2
5%
13.35
X/X
7%
5.65
2/1
10%
24.65
2/2
7%
11.9
2/X
9%
20.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Sporting Braga win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.0pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.5pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.97/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.68
+4% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
24.9 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AVS
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
3.46 xG 0.92
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
500 Passes 186
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 AVS AVS 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
4-1
AWAY AVS
2.06 xG 0.53
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
507 Passes 257
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga swept aside AVS 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 64% of the ball to AVS's 36%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 2.06 to 0.53.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs AVS?

Sporting Braga 4-1 AVS in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 57%, draw 24%, AVS 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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