Estrela vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estrela v Farense — Team-Based Signals
Estrela vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Estrela
POR
2-2
HT 1-1
Estrela
POR2
1-1
HT 1-0
Farense
POR2
3-0
HT 0-0
Estrela
POR2
Estrela 0-1 Farense — Actual Match Statistics
Farense squeezed past Estrela 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Farense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Estrela had 59% of the ball to Farense's 41%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.37 to 1.08.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Estrela and 1.67 for Farense.
What was the final score of Estrela vs Farense?
Estrela 0-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estrela vs Farense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estrela 39%, draw 28%, Farense 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Estrela) went the other way.