Benfica vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Benfica v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Benfica vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Benfica
PORLC
0-3
HT 0-1
Benfica
POR
4-0
HT 3-0
Arouca
POR
Benfica 2-2 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica and Arouca shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
This one beat our numbers. Benfica carried 64% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Benfica had 55% of the ball to Arouca's 45%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 2.88 to 1.36.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Benfica and 0.00 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Benfica vs Arouca?
Benfica 2-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Benfica vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Benfica 64%, draw 20%, Arouca 17%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Benfica) went the other way.