Salernitana 1-1 Casertana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 May 2026

📅13/05/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
21%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
49%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Casertana EU Bookmakers 28%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -9%
0.74/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.28
-49% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Casertana
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2026 Casertana Casertana 2-3 HT 0-2 Salernitana Salernitana İTC
05.03.2026 Casertana Casertana 1-0 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTC
26.10.2025 Salernitana Salernitana 2-1 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
09.05.2015 Salernitana Salernitana 1-1 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
1-1
AWAY Casertana
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Casertana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salernitana and Casertana shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Salernitana at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Salernitana had 40% of the ball to Casertana's 60%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Salernitana had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Salernitana and 1.25 for Casertana.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Casertana?

Salernitana 1-1 Casertana in the Italy - Serie C on 13/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Casertana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salernitana win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 52%, draw 27%, Casertana 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Salernitana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salernitana) ✓ Under 2.5
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