Kerry 2-1 Longford Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 13 Jun 2024

📅13/06/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.81
No
58%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 34% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
27%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
37%
+7.8pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.0pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.2pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kerry EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Longford Town EU Bookmakers 38%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.31
+59% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kerry
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Longford Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Kerry İR1
05.04.2024 Kerry 3-0 HT 2-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
08.09.2023 Kerry 0-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
15.07.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
01.04.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
POST-MATCH Kerry vs Longford Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kerry nicked a narrow win over Longford Town 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kerry as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Longford Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kerry and 1.20 for Longford Town.

What was the final score of Kerry vs Longford Town?

Kerry 2-1 Longford Town in the Ireland - 1st Division on 13/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kerry vs Longford Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kerry win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kerry 45%, draw 24%, Longford Town 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kerry) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kerry) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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