TPS Turku 2-3 SalPa Salo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.82
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.2
6+ Goals
11%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 27% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-12.2pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.7pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY SalPa Salo EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.26/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.43
+2% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
2W-1D-1L
AWAY SalPa Salo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 0-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
24.02.2024 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 1-1 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FINYK
05.08.2023 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 3-0 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
27.05.2023 TPS Turku TPS Turku 2-1 HT 0-1 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
2-3
AWAY SalPa Salo
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs SalPa Salo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SalPa Salo nicked a narrow win over TPS Turku 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was TPS Turku at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, TPS Turku had 60% of the ball to SalPa Salo's 40%, shots finished 7-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, TPS Turku had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for TPS Turku and 1.25 for SalPa Salo.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs SalPa Salo?

TPS Turku 2-3 SalPa Salo in the Finland - Ykkönen on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs SalPa Salo?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 46%, draw 30%, SalPa Salo 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (TPS Turku) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✓ Over 2.5
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