AC Connecticut 5-3 Pathfinder — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 2, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
45%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.96
Over 2.5
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.35
No
40%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.5pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.7pp
45%
Away Win
39%
+6.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+5.4pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-5.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
70%
-10.3pp
40%
BTTS No
30%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Connecticut EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Pathfinder EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -61% / -61%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
-38% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Connecticut
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Pathfinder
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.06.2024 Pathfinder Pathfinder 6-2 HT 3-1 AC Connecticut AC Connecticut USL2
21.06.2023 AC Connecticut AC Connecticut 1-1 HT 0-0 Pathfinder Pathfinder USL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Connecticut
5-3
AWAY Pathfinder
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AC Connecticut vs Pathfinder
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Connecticut saw off Pathfinder 5-3. Half-time: 2-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Pathfinder at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AC Connecticut had 56% of the ball to Pathfinder's 44%, shots finished 15-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pathfinder led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AC Connecticut and 3.50 for Pathfinder.

What was the final score of AC Connecticut vs Pathfinder?

AC Connecticut 5-3 Pathfinder in the USA - USL League 2 on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Connecticut vs Pathfinder?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pathfinder win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split AC Connecticut 34%, draw 21%, Pathfinder 45%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pathfinder) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pathfinder) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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