Bahia 2-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.9pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.57/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.23
+3% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 81%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.5 Crosses 19.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.02
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 Passes 393
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.09.2024 Bahia Bahia 3-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
02.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
07.12.2023 Bahia Bahia 4-1 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
13.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
03.12.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
05.08.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
2-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.67 xG 0.34
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
299 Passes 347
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia edged past Atletico Mineiro 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Bahia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 47% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 53%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 0.67 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bahia and 1.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro?

Bahia 2-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Bahia 40%, draw 27%, Atletico Mineiro 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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