Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Jun 2024

📅02/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.85
6+ Goals
10%
16.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.38
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.9
X/1
18%
3.97
X/2
10%
8.44
X/X
12%
4.74
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
9%
6.76
2/X
7%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.58/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.43
+11% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.4 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.23
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
417 Passes 312
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2023 Bahia Bahia 4-1 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
13.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
03.12.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
05.08.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
29.07.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BRK
25.07.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-1
AWAY Bahia
1.02 xG 0.39
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
516 Passes 245
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 13
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro and Bahia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 64% of the ball to Bahia's 36%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.02 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.33 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia?

Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 47%, draw 28%, Bahia 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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