Criciuma 1-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Jun 2024

📅02/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.04
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
41%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.02
6+ Goals
7%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
18%
7.36
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
9%
16.1
X/1
7%
8.44
X/2
17%
3.92
X/X
12%
3.91
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.52
2/X
8%
15.15
Value flag · 1/1 at 7.36 — our 18% vs market 9.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+8.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
41%
Away Win
51%
-9.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.1pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 55%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
0.75/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.50
-22% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +105%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
252 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
Crosses 20.8
Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
282 Passes 344
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
11.09.2014 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
21.04.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.12.2004 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
1-2
AWAY Palmeiras
1.25 xG 2.88
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
200 Passes 345
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 32
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Criciuma 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Criciuma had 39% of the ball to Palmeiras's 61%, shots finished 12-23, expected goals 1.25 to 2.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Criciuma and 2.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Palmeiras?

Criciuma 1-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 30%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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