Bahia 3-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Sep 2024

Bahia
3-0 HT 0-0
Atletico Mineiro
📅16/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.28
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.9
X/1
13%
4.02
X/2
11%
7.77
X/X
12%
4.38
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
10%
6.39
2/X
7%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.6pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Atletico Mineiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.48/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.19
-1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
22.7 Crosses 19.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 1.23
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
308 Passes 429
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
07.12.2023 Bahia Bahia 4-1 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
13.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
03.12.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
05.08.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
29.07.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BRK

Bahia 3-0 Atletico Mineiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
3-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.10 xG 0.55
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
462 Passes 381
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 7
13 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia ran out comfortable winners over Atletico Mineiro 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Bahia had 54% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 46%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.10 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bahia and 1.50 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro?

Bahia 3-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Bahia 45%, draw 28%, Atletico Mineiro 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
16 Sep 2024
00:30 Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Analysis →
00:30 Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama Analysis →