Flamengo 1-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Sep 2024

Flamengo
1-1 HT 0-0
Vasco da Gama
📅16/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.18
6+ Goals
10%
20.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.15
X/1
21%
3.85
X/2
8%
9.52
X/X
13%
4.43
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
11%
8.01
2/X
9%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.1pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Flamengo v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.64/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.42
+0% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
401 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.6 Crosses 19.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6

Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.82 xG 1.12
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
422 Passes 269
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-6 HT 1-3 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
22.10.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
06.06.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-4 HT 0-4 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
20.03.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-3 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRC1
14.03.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 3-2 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1
06.03.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 0-1 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1

Flamengo 1-1 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.07 xG 1.03
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
471 Passes 271
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo and Vasco da Gama couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Flamengo at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Flamengo had 61% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 39%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.07 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Flamengo and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama?

Flamengo 1-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 47%, draw 29%, Vasco da Gama 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Flamengo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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