Cruzeiro 0-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Sep 2024

📅16/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.27
No
63%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
14%
5.63
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.75
X/1
22%
3.82
X/2
9%
8.79
X/X
16%
3.7
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
10%
7.95
2/X
7%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-8.0pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.8pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.2pp
37%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.0pp
63%
BTTS No
60%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.61/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.32
+9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
23.4 Crosses 15.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.75 xG 0.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
340 Passes 436
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
03.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
25.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
17.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
02.06.2019 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
19.11.2018 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
0-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.58 xG 1.07
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
437 Passes 264
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 26
31 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo edged past Cruzeiro 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cruzeiro at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 61% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 39%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.58 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.83 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Cruzeiro 0-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 43%, draw 31%, Sao Paulo 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cruzeiro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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