Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Super Cup, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-7.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+6.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 32%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
3.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
+150% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 1.12
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
332 Passes 280
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.05.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
10.11.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 5-2 HT 2-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.05.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.11.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
16.04.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-2 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
01.10.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
1-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova edged past Lech Poznan 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Legia Varşova made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 58% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 42%, shots finished 10-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.00 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova?

Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Super Cup on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 37%, draw 28%, Legia Varşova 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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