El Gounah 2-1 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.47
6+ Goals
7%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 36% vs market 31.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.3pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Gounah EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Baladiyyat Al Mehalla EU Bookmakers 32%
-16% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.39/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/0.31
-3% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
21.1 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Gounah
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 0.92
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
178 Passes 341
64% Pass Accuracy 73%
7 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
31.05.2024 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1-1 HT 0-0 El Gounah El Gounah MSRK
08.03.2024 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1-2 HT 1-1 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Gounah
2-1
AWAY Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
0.88 xG 0.47
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
110 Passes 280
49% Pass Accuracy 68%
14 Box Touches 14
9 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH El Gounah vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Gounah edged past Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; El Gounah found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Gounah had 35% of the ball to Baladiyyat Al Mehalla's 65%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.88 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, El Gounah had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Gounah and 1.00 for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla.

What was the final score of El Gounah vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

El Gounah 2-1 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla in the Egypt - Premier League on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Gounah vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Gounah win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split El Gounah 40%, draw 27%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Gounah) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Gounah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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