Flamengo 1-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒03:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.14
6+ Goals
9%
19.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 35% vs market 29.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
15%
4.37
X/2
12%
7.31
X/X
13%
4.21
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
11%
5.75
2/X
6%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.8pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.39/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.27/0.26
+1% / +120% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
416 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
16.5 Crosses 12.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Bahia
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.75 xG 0.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
413 Passes 370
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
21.06.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.09.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.05.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 1-3 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
12.11.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
19.07.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-5 HT 0-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-0
AWAY Bahia
1.17 xG 0.57
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 0
392 Passes 478
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
27 Box Touches 6
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo nicked a narrow win over Bahia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Flamengo had 46% of the ball to Bahia's 54%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.17 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Flamengo and 0.50 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Bahia?

Flamengo 1-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Cup on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 47%, draw 26%, Bahia 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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