Kawasaki Frontale 3-2 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.56
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.64
6+ Goals
12%
6.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.71
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.4
X/1
18%
3.9
X/2
7%
14.25
X/X
12%
7.0
2/1
9%
20.35
2/2
5%
9.95
2/X
6%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
65%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.3pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.4pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.98/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.73
+30% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
514 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
17.1 Crosses 15.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.80 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
488 Passes 376
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
15.05.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 5-2 HT 3-2 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
03.12.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
07.05.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
31.08.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 4-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
21.05.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-0 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
07.11.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-1 HT 3-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
3-2
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.67 xG 2.11
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
432 Passes 364
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
43 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kawasaki Frontale vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kawasaki Frontale nicked a narrow win over Sagan Tosu 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kawasaki Frontale as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kawasaki Frontale had 54% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 46%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 2.67 to 2.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.33 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Kawasaki Frontale vs Sagan Tosu?

Kawasaki Frontale 3-2 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kawasaki Frontale vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Kawasaki Frontale 59%, draw 23%, Sagan Tosu 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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